CYCLE TOP

Hold onto your bags, degenerates! The crypto cycle is accelerating faster than a bull run on steroids, and the chatter around a left-translated cycle is heating up. According to the prophetic musings of @BobLoukas, we might be looking at cycle tops sneaking up in late 2024 instead of the previously anticipated late 2025. But wait—could there be TWO major tops on the horizon? Let’s dive deep into this chaotic dance of bulls and bears!

🌀 The Rapid Cycle Unfolding

This cycle is a beast, moving at breakneck speed and leaving even the most seasoned traders scrambling to keep up. The conversation is buzzing about a left-translated cycle, potentially capping off by the end of 2024. If BobLoukas is onto something, we could be staring down not one, but two colossal cycle tops. Here’s the play-by-play:

1. The Early Exit Frenzy

Crypto natives, scarred by the ghosts of past bear markets, are primed to sell too early. They’ve been haunted by memories of peak net worth and are desperate to avoid another roundtrip that could wipe out their generational wealth dreams. The first wave of sellers will parade around doing victory laps after offloading their bags onto TradFi. Meanwhile, the last holdouts will convince themselves they’re sticking to the plan, only to be left gobsmacked when TradFi swoops in to buy the dip, sending us straight to a new ATH.

2. The Paradigm Shift

Gone are the days of crypto natives doing victory laps. The narrative shifts as they start buying back in, higher and higher, fueled by an influx of TradFi money that’s seemingly endless. This new paradigm—where TradFi flows are infinite and the market is perpetually ascending—marks the real cycle top. It’s a twisted game of FOMO and strategic exits, where only the shrewdest survive.

🎭 Choose Your Fighter: How Will You Play the Cycle?

The game is on, and it’s time to pick your path through this madness:

• 🥷 Chad: Sell the first peak and reload during the capitulation wick for round two. Play it cool, take profits early, and gear up for the next surge.

• 🐸 HODL: Wait until crypto natives declare they’re never selling again. This is your green light to hold tight and ride the wave to new heights.

• 🚑 Nightmare: Capitulate at the bottom of the first peak and FOMO your way to the top of the second. It’s a wild ride, but the rewards (or the regrets) are all yours.

Odds: 2:1 you’ll either retire rich or end up in a mental institution. Choose wisely.

🧠 Exit Strategies Over Entry Excitement

We’re at a juncture where thinking about exits takes center stage, even for those max long and actively trading. Personally, I’m surprised by myself, but the chances are growing that I’ll take profits late December rather than waiting until January or beyond. Here’s why:

Multiple Shots in the Coming Years

Expect several smaller cycles as the market continues its relentless push. The past two years have shown us that we keep running hot in Q4/Q1, only to crash hard in Q2/Q3. This pattern suggests a series of mini-cycles rather than a single, prolonged ascent.

uPnL Overload

The market is teeming with unrealized PnL right now, making it a prime candidate for strategic exits:

• Tax Year Considerations: Most traders defer selling until January to align with the new tax year, creating a window for sales in December.

• Trump Inauguration Sales: Historically, news around significant events like the Trump inauguration has triggered sell-offs.

• Solana’s FUD Unlock Q1: On a smaller scale, developments like Solana’s FUD unlock in Q1 could spark pullbacks, favoring December sales.

🔮 Looking Ahead: Catalysts for a January Pullback

There are real catalysts on the horizon that could trigger a pullback in January, making December an opportune time to take profits:

• TradFi Moves: As TradFi continues to pour in, expect significant buying pressure that could set new ATHs.

• Market Sentiment Swings: Emotional trading driven by cycle fatigue and external events will keep the market volatile.

• Regulatory Shifts: Any regulatory changes could act as a catalyst for quick market adjustments.

🌐 We’re Fully Viral—Time to Think Local Tops

The market has gone fully viral, meaning global momentum is driving unprecedented movements. Now, more than ever, we need to be vigilant about local tops forming before the end of January. Stay sharp, monitor the trends, and be ready to pivot your strategy as the cycle continues to evolve at warp speed.

In this high-octane crypto rollercoaster, only the most adaptable and strategic degens will thrive. Whether you choose to be a Chad, a HODLer, or fall into the Nightmare, remember that timing and psychological fortitude are your best allies. Strap in, keep your eyes on the charts, and may the gains be ever in your favor! 🚀